International workshop on Yellow Fever Modelling in Brazil to address challenges and scientific advancements in modelling in the context of climate change
The “International workshop on Yellow Fever Modelling in Brazil” aims to foster high-level discussions on the challenges and scientific advancements in yellow fever modelling, particularly in the context of climate change in Brazil. As an arbovirus of great epidemiological relevance, yellow fever impacts both public health and the conservation of non-human primate populations, requiring integrated approaches.
This workshop is part of Fiocruz's initiative in the “Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC 2.0) research programme on climate change and vaccine-preventable diseases” [1] (2022), funded by the Wellcome Trust (London, United Kingdom, UK) which aims to: (i) better characterise the mechanistic relationship between environment, climate and disease transmission; (ii) to assess implications of long-term climate change for disease burden, range and routine vaccination; (iii) to optimise control programmes to respond to seasonal variation in disease burden and the consequences of increasingly frequent extreme climate events.
Although vaccination against yellow fever is effective in protecting humans, the generation of prediction and transmission risk models faces difficulties in having broad, consistent and long-term databases that can express the complex dynamics of the ecology of the disease in the face of climate change, changes in land use, the evolution of pathogen-host relationships and limitations of vaccination.
To address these challenges, we will bring together researchers specializing in disease transmission dynamics from Brazilian research institutions and reference organizations, such as the Ministry of Health, as well as international experts from Imperial College London, creating an environment conducive to knowledge exchange and the enhancement of modelling methodologies.
The workshop is in person with broadcast of the opening section on YouTube via link https://www.youtube.com/live/Iurwao9OVKk. The automatic translation on YouTube must be activated by the listener.
The objective of this workshop is:
- to present and discuss the mathematical models being developed by the groups involved in the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC 2.0);
- to present and identify gaps in knowledge and priorities in information that compromise the accuracy and progress of the models.
- to identify and develop strategies for obtaining data that can be used for the necessary advances in public policies for the prevention and control of yellow fever.
PROGRAM
May 5th
Morning
08:45 - 09:45 - Welcome coffee
10:00 - 10:30 - Opening table
Dr. Tania Fonseca
Coordinator of the Coordination of Surveillance and Reference Service of the Fiocruz Presidency
Dr. Akira Homma
Emeritus Researcher at Fiocruz, Senior Scientific Advisor at Biomanguinhos
Dr. Neil Ferguson (online)
Director of the Climate Programme at the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium and Deputy Director of the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium
Dr. Livia Carla Vinhal Frutuoso
Coordinator of General Coordination of Arboviruses, Secretariat of Health and Environmental Surveillance of the Brazilian Ministry of Health
Dr. Rodrigo Said
National Officer, Technical Unit for Health Emergencies, Evidence and Intelligence Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization
Dr. Katy Gaythorpe
Lecturer in Epidemiology of Vaccine-Preventable Diseases
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London
10:30 - 10:50
Current Status of the Project "Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC 2.0) Research Programme on Climate Change and Vaccine-Preventable Diseases"
Dr. Neil Ferguson – online (Climate Programme at the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium)
10:50 - 11:10
Current Status of Yellow Fever model in the context of the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium.
Dr. Katy Gaythorpe (Imperial College London)
11:10 - 11:30
Yellow Fever Fiocruz model of ecological favourability – advances and support for prevention and control since 2016
Dr. Douglas Augusto and Dr. Eduardo Krempser (Fiocruz Institutional Platform for Biodiversity and Wildlife Health)
11:30-11:50
Overview of Yellow Fever in Brazil and models to support surveillance
Dr. Daniel Garkauskas (General Coordination of Arboviruses, Brazilian Ministry of Health)
11:50 – 12:10
Workshop objectives and expected outcomes
Dr. Katy Gaythorpe (Imperial College London)
Produce report/ summary
Position paper on priority areas/ actions/ efforts/ challenges
12:15 - Group Photo
12:15 - 13:30 – LUNCH
Afternoon - Expert presentations on epidemiological models
13:30 - 14:00
InfoDengue
Dr. Claudia Torres Codeço (Senior researcher at the Scientific Computing Program - Procc/Fiocruz and coordinator of InfoDengue)
14:00 - 14:10 - Questions/discussion
14:10 - 14:40
A Mechanistic Understanding of Climate Sensitivities in Dengue Transmission in the Americas, with a focus on Colombia
Dra. Zulma Cucunubá – online (Universidad Javeriana, Colombia)
14:40 - 14:50 - Questions/discussion
14:50 - 15:05 – Coffee-break
15:05 - 15:35
Malaria model of Cameroon
Prof. Charles Wondji - online (Centre for Research in Infectious Diseases - CRID/Cameroon -)
15:35- 15:45 - Questions/discussion
15:45 – 16:15
Modelling Yellow fever in Brazil: data acquisition, geospatial and mechanistic modelling (detail of biotic data)
Dr. Angélica Matta and Dr. Livia Abdalla (Fiocruz Institutional Platform for Biodiversity and Wildlife Health)
16:15 - 16:20 - Questions/discussion
16:20 – 16:30 - Information about the work of the following days
Closing
MAY 6th – Working Groups
Morning
9:00 – 9:45
Groups discussion of common data gaps and methodological challenges to the presented models the previous day - guided discussion
9:45 – 10:15
Presentation and discussion of groups with the main data gaps and methodological challenges for advances in all forecasting models presented
10:15 – 10:30 – Coffee-break
10:30 – 11:45
Detailed presentation of the mathematical structure of the compartmental epidemiological yellow fever model with critical assessment of information gaps
11:45 – 12:00 - Questions/discussion
12:00 – 13:30 – LUNCH
Afternoon
13:30 – 14:15
Identifying key data sets for the presented model to organize discussions into blocks and identify the order in which the group discusses the gaps.
(Facilitators - Organize the discussion considering, but not limited, to non-human primates, vectors, virus and immunity, climate and land use data; underreporting estimate; and vaccination)
14:15 – 16:15
Block 1 - Discussion of the gaps included in the block considering its impact on improving the model
16:15 – 16:30 - Consolidation of discussion on information gaps
Coffee available throughout the discussion from 15:00 to 15:15
MAY 7th – Working Groups
Morning
9:00 – 10:30
Block 2 - Discussion of the gaps included in the block considering its impact on improving the model
10:30 – 10:45 - Consolidation of discussion on information gaps
10:45 – 12:00
Block 3 - Discussion of the gaps included in the block considering its impact on improving the model
12:00 – 12:15 - Consolidation of discussion on information gaps
Coffee available throughout the discussion from 10:45 to 11:00
12:15 – 13:30 - LUNCH
Afternoon
13:30 – 15:00
Block 4 - Discussion of the gaps included in the block considering its impact on improving the model
15:00 – 15:15 - Consolidation of discussion on information gaps
15:15 – 16:15
Block 5 - Discussion of the gaps included in the block considering its impact on improving the model
16:15 – 16:30 - Consolidation of discussion on information gaps
Coffee available throughout the discussion from 15:00 to 15:15
MAY 8th
Morning
9:00 – 10:30
Block CLIMATE - Discussion of the gaps included in the block considering its impact on improving the model (overview Sally)
10:30 – 10:45 - Consolidation of discussion on information gaps
10:45 – 12:00
Block VACCINE - Discussion of the gaps included in the block considering its impact on improving the model
12:00 – 12:15 - Consolidation of discussion on information gaps
Coffee available throughout the discussion from 10:45 to 11:00
12:15 – 13:30 - LUNCH
Afternoon
13:30 – 14:30
Presentation of workshop results
14:30 – 15:30
Open discussion with experts on what is needed to advance epidemiological modeling for yellow fever.
Proposal for approaches for other disease areas
Networking/ joining modelling group efforts/ results
15:30 – 16:00
Outcomes (Networking, Position paper)
Dra. Katy Gaythorpe
16:00 – 16:30
Acknowledgments and closing coffee-break
LOCATION:
May 5th - Leonidas and Marie Deane Building Auditorium, Fiocruz Rio de Janeiro
May 6th to 8th – Room 402 – Expansão, Campus Maré